Bloomberg is reporting this week that:
Oil production in Texas?s Eagle Ford shale formation rose 58% in May from the prior year. The nine fields that make up the majority of Eagle Ford yielded 581,923 barrels of crude a day (see chart above), according to preliminary data released by the Texas Railroad Commission, which oversees oil and gas drilling in the state. The fields produced 368,770 barrels daily in May 2012.
Growing production out of Eagle Ford is helping fuel a renaissance in Texas crude. The state produced a total of 2.45 million barrels a day in April, the highest monthly level since April 1985, according to the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Energy Department. The EIA hasn?t released May production data for the state.
With the typical monthly upward revisions of 30,000 to 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the Texas Railroad Commission that will be announced later, it?s very likely that May oil production in the Eagle Ford Shale surpassed 600,000 bpd for the first time, and actually increased by almost 70% over May last year (see reference here).
The chart above shows how phenomenal the rise of the Eagle Ford Shale play has been over the last several years. As recently as 2010, Eagle Ford Shale oil production was so inconsequential at only 15,000 barrels per day that it represented only about 1% of Texas?s oil output. Even in 2011, as shale oil?output in the Eagle Ford Shale started surging?and it produced an average of 129,000 barrels per day, that was still less than 9% of the Lone Star State?s annual oil output that year. But last year things started changing dramatically, as oil companies tapped into a gusher of shale oil in the Eagle Ford, and oil production there in 2012?represented 18% of the state?s total output. In April of this year, the Eagle Ford Shale accounted for almost 22% of the state?s total oil output, and more than 7% of all oil produced nationwide.
Bottom Line: If the current annual increases in Eagle Ford Shale oil production continue in the 50-70% range, which are now much higher than the 30-50% increases in Bakken Shale oil production this year, it?s likely that the Eagle Ford Shale will surpass oil output in the Bakken sometime in the second half of next year. But it?s also almost certain that oil production in both the Eagle Ford Shale and Bakken Shale formations will surpass one million barrels per day sometime in the second half of next year. For right now, given the phenomenal and ongoing increases in Eagle Ford oil output, I?m predicting that the Eagle Ford Shale will get to that important milestone of one million bpd first!
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