I?ve been to the last Congress, the 17th Congress which has been in 2007. And both the procedures, the entourage and so on ? there is not much difference. So, it is the same old story for everybody familiar with the congresses of late Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Cuban Communist Party or the Labour Party of the North Korea ? all know what it looks like. Main delegates, not too much information, one week of words behind the closed doors, press corps are present at the opening ceremony, part of the so called discussions and the closing ceremony, but nobody knows what?s happening behind the closed doors. So, it is the old same Marxist-Leninist socialist rhetoric with Chinese correction 6 and not too much substance in the official language of the event.
The major thing behind this Congress is that this Congress is to select the new leadership. Today the Congress produced the new Central Committee of the Party which is virtually their main body which takes major strategic decisions, there are about 205 people in it. And all the members of previous leadership, including President Hu Jingtao and Premier Wen Jiabao, are already not included in this new Central Committee. And all the people whom we expect to see as the new leaders of China, like the future President Xi Jinping and future Prime Minister Li Keqiang are in.
So, tomorrow we will see who will be in the new Politburo which is the main ruling organ and conclave of the Party, the ruling elite. There will be seven or nine members. The speculation goes that it will be reduced to seven people. And this will be the primary focus of the current Congress.
Do I get it right that Hu Jingtao has not retained the top military position in the governing structures?
That is not clear yet. There are many rumors that in the new Politburo Standing Committee there are only two allies of Mr. Hu Jingtao. So, to protect them he will maybe retain this top military position as the Chairman of the Party Military Commission which also heads the military and not subordinated to the Secretary General of the Party and the President. Because previously Jiang Zemin did the same trick ten years ago and held this position for two more years after he stepped down as the Party Secretary and the President. So, it is very likely that Hu Jingtao will follow the same way.
What is your feeling? How could the relations between the country?s military and the new leadership develop?
I think that they will be alright. The Party really cherishes the Army, it gives it lots of funds, new rocketry and so on. And Army intervenes and even participates in politics since Tiananmen in 1989. And actually at that time the Army proved to be pretty loyal to the Party. So, I don?t see any real rift or disconnections between military and the Party leadership.
How do you see the process of political reform?
There is not too much talk about a political reform. And what we saw both in speeches of Hu Jingtao and in the resolution of the Party Congress and all the interviews and so on the reform is very unlikely and nobody knows what needs to be done, what is needed to reform because it is clear that the Party will not fit its power to any other power or any other body in the society and so on.
So, maybe we will see more implementation of fighting corruption which is officially part of the Party?s policy. But I think that in the first five years of Xi Jinping administration we will see no political reform at all. And maybe we will see something later but right now it is very difficult to tell because economy is not in the best shape, it is still growing, people don?t like the Party ? like ordinary people and of course the middle class but they don?t have any alternative. And they pretty know that the social contract between the Party and the society is still working. So the Party provides stability, growth, new opportunities and China is still a much better place than it used to be 10 years ago. And though people have many new demands they still agree to be governed by the same Party. There are not too many challenges which are so radical that the Party needs reforming tomorrow.
Source: http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_11_15/China-Communist-party-provides-stability-growth-expert/
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